Monday, April 2, 2012

04/02/2012 Severe Wx Update

Here is the update for today's risk:

The severe threat has shifted farther east than previously forecast but this will not last. This is only the first round of severe storms. Later today more will fire off farther west. There are three severe thunderstorm watches that have been issued.


Marginal Severe Weather Threat

Today there is a good possibility for severe weather over much of the central states. The states included in the Storm Prediction Center's SLIGHT RISK area are Louisiana, central and east Texas, central Oklahoma, central Kansas, and extreme southeast Nebraska.

In these areas reside three individual risks: wind, hail, and tornadoes. The marginal tornado threat includes central Texas from Kerrville to Brownwood, Abilene, and Wichita Falls. The threat extends into eastern Oklahoma from Duncan to Altus and up to Woodward and Enid. The remainder of the tornado threat extends into Kansas and includes Dodge City.

The marginal hail threat includes these same areas but extends also to the following major cities: In Texas...Austin and Dallas; In Louisiana...Shreveport and Monroe; In Oklahoma...Oklahoma City, this includes the SPC in Norman; In Kansas...Wichita; In Nebraska...Omaha.

The marginal wind threat includes these same areas however, there is a significant wind risk from Dodge City, Great Bend, Hutchinson, Salina, Junction City, Fort Riley North, and Manhattan...All of these cities are located in Kansas.

Storms will explode throughout the afternoon and evening hours and likely continue on into the night. These storms will contain deadly lightning, damaging hail and winds and even the possible tornado. Please regard all warnings and watches with respect and listen to you NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. If you do not own one, please check in with your local media. Remember, a tornado can occur at any time during severe weather with little to no warning. If a warning is issued don't wait to see or hear it...take cover immediately.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Severe Weather Expected Thursday

Severe weather is expected on Thursday March 7, 2012. A disturbance moving in from the Rockies will collide with a warmer air mass over parts of East Texas and much of North Louisiana. As a result, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has forecast an area from West Tennessee to Northeast Texas that will see over 2.00" of rainfall from this system. Obviously, flooding will be the largest risk.

HPC forecast outlining areas that will see over 2" of rainfall.
We cannot rule out the possibility of severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a SLIGHT RISK in their Day 2 Outlook. This area stretches from Central Texas to Southern Arkansas.

SPC forecasting a slight risk for Thursday.
Stay tuned for any updates as the situation is monitored.

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

ArkLaTex is Safe

Today the ArkLaTex is safe and free of severe weather. The threat has shifted eastward into Tennessee and Kentucky. There have been no reported deaths overnight but hundreds of injuries from tornadoes in Indiana and Illinois. Two towns took direct hits from large, damaging tornadoes. If you would like up-to-date information on the severe weather today, please follow this link to a friend in the heart of the action today: http://www.monteaglemountainweather.blogspot.com.

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Tornado Watch #43 Issued for Parts of the ArkLaTex



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
          EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
          SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
          EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
   UNTIL 500 AM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD
   MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...
   
   DISCUSSION...BROKEN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
   SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EWD ACROSS
   OK/KS INTO SW MO/NW AR OVERNIGHT.  SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND A
   CONTINUATION OF VERY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE/PERSISTENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27050.



East Central Kansas Tornado Warning




237

WFUS53 KTOP 290410

TORTOP

KSC045-290430-

/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0004.120229T0410Z-120229T0430Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

1010 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 1030 PM CST



* AT 1007 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO.  THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLOBE...OR 11 MILES

  NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  PLEASANT GROVE...

  BALDWIN CITY...

  VINLAND...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW!



STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST

SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.



&&



LAT...LON 3874 9534 3874 9540 3879 9543 3895 9512

      3881 9506

TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 237DEG 70KT 3877 9532

HAIL <.75IN



$$



BLAIR














Tornado Warning in Central Kansas


THIS IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THIS TORNADO WOULD BE LOCATED IN THAT LITTLE HOOK..TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY..

469

WFUS53 KICT 290125

TORICT

KSC113-115-290215-

/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0003.120229T0125Z-120229T0215Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

725 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

  NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 815 PM CST



* AT 718 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

  DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF GOESSEL...OR 14 MILES

  SOUTHEAST OF MCPHERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.



  THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONCE AGAIN   


  INCREASING!



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  LEHIGH...HILLSBORO...DURHAM...TAMPA...LINCOLNVILLE...MARION LAKE...

  PILSEN...RAMONA AND LOST SPRINGS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW!



TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT

AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

IN WICHITA.



&&



LAT...LON 3839 9692 3817 9741 3818 9742 3832 9757

      3861 9717 3861 9694

TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 233DEG 54KT 3832 9736

HAIL 1.75IN



$$



ES














Severe Thunderstorm Warning in South Central & Central Nebraska




880
WUUS53 KGID 290033
SVRGID
NEC079-093-290115-
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0003.120229T0033Z-120229T0115Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  HALL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
  SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 630 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM DANNEBROG TO WOOD RIVER...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.
  PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GRAND ISLAND...ALDA...DONIPHAN AND ST. LIBORY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 293 AND 317.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 9828 4070 9872 4104 9872 4129 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 223DEG 38KT 4112 9844 4081 9850
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN

$$

WESELY

South Central Kansas Tornado Warning


A TORNADO CAN BE PRODUCED AT ANY TIME. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY..

379

WFUS53 KICT 290030

TORICT

KSC155-290100-

/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0001.120229T0030Z-120229T0100Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

630 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 700 PM CST



* AT 626 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

  DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ARLINGTON...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF

  KINGMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  HUTCHINSON...PARTRIDGE...SOUTH HUTCHINSON...BUHLER...YODER...

  WILLOWBROOK AND HUTCHINSON AIRPORT.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT

WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.



&&



LAT...LON 3817 9795 3817 9770 3813 9770 3796 9771

      3776 9813 3790 9828

TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 229DEG 53KT 3790 9811

HAIL 1.75IN



$$



SCHMINKE

Severe Thunderstorm Warning in South Central Kansas




264
WUUS53 KICT 290018
SVRICT
KSC095-155-290100-
/O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0007.120229T0018Z-120229T0100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
618 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL KINGMAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  RENO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 618 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE  
  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6  
  MILES NORTHEAST OF PENALOSA...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF            
  KINGMAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUTCHINSON...ARLINGTON...PRETTY PRAIRIE...ABBYVILLE...PARTRIDGE...
  NICKERSON...SOUTH HUTCHINSON...HAVEN...BUHLER...LANGDON...YODER...
  WILLOWBROOK AND HUTCHINSON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning in South Central Nebraska




292
WUUS53 KGID 290014
SVRGID
NEC019-099-137-290045-
/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0002.120229T0014Z-120229T0045Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BUFFALO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
  NORTHERN KEARNEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
  NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 612 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
  FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HAZARD TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PLEASANTON
  TO 7 MILES NORTH OF AXTELL...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE
  HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KEARNEY...PLEASANTON...POOLE...RAVENNA...GIBBON...HEARTWELL AND
  SHELTON.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 263 AND 292.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

Tornado Warning in North Central Kansas


AS I WARNED A MINUTE AGO...THIS STORM HAS BECOME TORNADO WARNED...THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. 


IF YOU ARE IN BELLEVILLE, KS TAKE SHELTER!!

032

WFUS53 KTOP 290004

TORTOP

KSC157-290030-

/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0002.120229T0004Z-120229T0030Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

604 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 630 PM CST



* AT 603 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO.  THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

  BELLEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  BELLEVILLE...

  MUNDEN...

  NARKA...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



IF A TORNADO APPROACHES...GO TO A BASEMENT OR SEEK SHELTER IN A

HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING. USE BLANKETS

OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR HEAD AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF

YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING. AS A LAST

RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR

HEAD.



STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST

SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.



&&



LAT...LON 3998 9737 3997 9736 3997 9737 3991 9737

      3975 9764 3981 9774 4000 9754 4000 9737

TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 231DEG 35KT 3980 9766

HAIL <.75IN



$$



BLAIR

Severe Thunderstorm Warning in North Central Kansas


THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM...IT CAN EASILY BECOME TORNADO WARNED IN A MATTER OF MINUTES.

828
WUUS53 KTOP 282358
SVRTOP
KSC157-290045-
/O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0002.120228T2358Z-120229T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
558 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 553 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES
  SOUTHEAST OF SCANDIA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BELLEVILLE...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BELLEVILLE...
  MUNDEN...
  NARKA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED
ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

PREPARE FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. FOR YOUR SAFETY...TAKE COVER INSIDE A
BUILDING NOW.

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9736 3988 9737 3966 9771 3977 9788
      4001 9761
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 229DEG 39KT 3979 9769
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

BLAIR

Tornado Watch # 40





000 
WWUS20 KWNS 282341 
SEL0 
SPC WW 282341 
KSZ000-290500- 


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 40 
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 
545 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012 


THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A 
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 


CENTRAL KANSAS 


EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 545 PM UNTIL 
1100 PM CST. 


TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND 
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE 
AREAS. 


THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE 
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF 
SALINA KANSAS TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A 
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE 
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). 


REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR 
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH 
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR 
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS 
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. 


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39... 


DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND A FEW 
SUSTAINED STORMS MAY EMERGE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITHIN THE WEAK 
INSTABILITY/STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE EXTREMELY STRONG 
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO DELAY STORM MATURATION...BUT A 
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR 
SOME RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS. 
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
LATER TONIGHT...THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME RISK FOR ADDITIONAL STORM 
DEVELOPMENT AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE ACROSS 
CENTRAL/ERN KS. 


AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL 
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE 
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24050. 




...THOMPSON 

North Kansas Tornado Warning Extended




927
WFUS53 KTOP 282331
TORTOP
KSC029-157-290000-
/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0001.120228T2331Z-120229T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
531 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN REPUBLIC COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 600 PM CST

* AT 530 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO.  THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
  JAMESTOWN...OR 16 MILES WEST OF CONCORDIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
  MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  JAMESTOWN...
  COURTLAND...
  NORWAY...
  SCANDIA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

&&

LAT...LON 3979 9794 3987 9781 3979 9759 3964 9761
      3951 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 237DEG 36KT 3960 9794
HAIL 1.25IN

$$

BLAIR

Tornado Warning in North Kansas


ANYONE IN THIS STORM'S PATH...TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY

777

WFUS53 KGID 282324

TORGID

KSC089-123-290000-

/O.NEW.KGID.TO.W.0002.120228T2324Z-120229T0000Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

524 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

  NORTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 600 PM CST



* AT 521 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  RANDALL...SCOTTSVILLE AND FORMOSO.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



THIS TORNADO WARNING REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING THAT

WAS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA.



&&



LAT...LON 3958 9826 3983 9793 3943 9793 3939 9803

TIME...MOT...LOC 2324Z 240DEG 36KT 3954 9804

HAIL 0.88IN



$$



GUERRERO










Severe Thunderstorm Warning in Nebraska


THIS STORM IS EXPERIENCING EXTREME ROTATION. A TORNADO MAY FORM AT ANY MOMENT.

337

WUUS53 KGID 282318

SVRGID

KSC089-123-290000-

/O.NEW.KGID.SV.W.0001.120228T2318Z-120229T0000Z/



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE

518 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN JEWELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

  MITCHELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 600 PM CST



* AT 516 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES

  NORTHWEST OF BELOIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  JEWELL...SCOTTSVILLE...RANDALL...MANKATO...MONTROSE AND FORMOSO.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER

HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR

YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR

HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE

INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.



&&



LAT...LON 3922 9849 3945 9849 3981 9822 3982 9793

      3933 9795 3923 9821

TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 225DEG 57KT 3955 9814

WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN



$$



GUERRERO














Severe Thunderstorm Warning




475

WWUS53 KLBF 282254

SVSLBF



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE

454 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



NEC009-041-113-171-282330-

/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120228T2330Z/

BLAINE NE-CUSTER NE-LOGAN NE-THOMAS NE-

454 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN

THOMAS...NORTHEASTERN LOGAN...NORTHWESTERN CUSTER AND WESTERN BLAINE

COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM CST...



AT 451 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES

SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 83 CROSSING THE DISMAL RIVER...OR 18 MILES

NORTHEAST OF STAPLETON...MOVING NORTH AT 50 MPH.



THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HALSEY AROUND 505 PM CST.



OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HIGHWAY 2

MILE MARKER 230.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER

HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR

YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR

HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE

INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.



TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT

AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

IN NORTH PLATTE.


Tornado Warning


NEC113-282245-

/O.CON.KLBF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120228T2245Z/

LOGAN NE-

422 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY UNTIL

445 PM CST...



AT 419 PM CST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO.  THIS

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR STAPLETON...MOVING NORTH AT 55 MPH.



AT 410 PM CST A TORNADO WAS REPORTED 9 MILES SOUTH OF STAPLETON.



THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY...

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS HIGHWAY 83 MILE MARKER 120.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN

INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID

WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE

CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.


First Weather Watch

Sorry guys, I was out when this was issued.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 39
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   355 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
          CENTRAL NEBRASKA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
   900 PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   COLUMBUS NEBRASKA TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INTENSIFYING
   AHEAD OF A DEEP SURFACE LOW...AND NEAR THE DRYLINE.  THESE STORMS
   WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.  THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS AFTER
   DARK WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
   
   
   ...HART


I know I know, it has nothing to do with the ArkLaTex area. The reason why this is here is because we as storm chasers and storm spotters need to get the word out. During the severe weather season, I will be covering any and all significant severe weather.

11:35AM CDT Update

Dew points have been steadily increasing over the area in the past couple of hours. The main severe threat has shifted farther north of the area again. Now all of the ArkLaTex area is out of the slight risk issued by the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma.

WARNING: This does not mean we are completely out of danger. Yes, the greatest risk of severe storms is in the outlined slight risk area but there can (and always will be) an isolated risk outside of that area.

I am still forecasting temperatures to jump to around 70 degrees. Winds will be on the increase throughout the rest of the day and will be between 5-10 mph and will continue to increase around 10-20 mph later tonight. Tomorrow we will see a chance of showers and thunderstorms...50%. The precipitation forecast for tomorrow is based off of the forecast given from the Weather Forecast Office in Shreveport, Louisiana.

Updated SPC Outlook:

Tuesday's Severe Weather Update

Today we will see isolated thunderstorms in the area. The severe weather threat still exists but is not forecast to be as great as anticipated over the past few days. It will be for the southern Arkansas area and very small parts of Texas and will likely arrive late this afternoon and tonight.

The main body of storms will be much farther north of us today and tonight. The slight risk area has been pushed farther northward to exclude most parts of the ArkLaTex area. The main threats, if severe storms do fire for our area, will be damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. Here I have included the updated outlook as well as probability tables for each of today's severe weather threats.

SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook:

SPC Tornado Probability:

SPC Wind Probability:

SPC Hail Probability:

Monday, February 27, 2012

Severe Storms Set to Roll Tuesday Night

Tomorrow February 28, 2012 could potentially be a big day for severe weather across the ArkLaTex. The day will start out with surface temperatures in the low to mid 50s. As daytime heating ramps up over the forecast period, highs will reach the mid 60s to lower 70s. Tomorrow's forecast also includes winds between 10-20 mph.

We can expect thunderstorms to fire in eastern Texas around 6PM CDT and move into our area overnight. The area of greatest risk encompasses much of Arkansas and small parts of Texas. Please stay tuned for updated forecasts for tomorrow's possible severe weather outbreak.

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook:

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Outlook Probabilities: