04/02/2012 Severe Wx Update

Here is the update for today's risk:

The severe threat has shifted farther east than previously forecast but this will not last. This is only the first round of severe storms. Later today more will fire off farther west. There are three severe thunderstorm watches that have been issued.

Marginal Severe Weather Threat

Today there is a good possibility for severe weather over much of the central states. The states included in the Storm Prediction Center's SLIGHT RISK area are Louisiana, central and east Texas, central Oklahoma, central Kansas, and extreme southeast Nebraska.

In these areas reside three individual risks: wind, hail, and tornadoes. The marginal tornado threat includes central Texas from Kerrville to Brownwood, Abilene, and Wichita Falls. The threat extends into eastern Oklahoma from Duncan to Altus and up to Woodward and Enid. The remainder of the tornado threat extends into Kansas and includes Dodge City.

The marginal hail threat includes these same areas but extends also to the following major cities: In Texas...Austin and Dallas; In Louisiana...Shreveport and Monroe; In Oklahoma...Oklahoma City, this includes the SPC in Norman; In Kansas...Wichita; In Nebraska...Omaha.

The marginal wind threat includes these same areas however, there is a significant wind risk from Dodge City, Great Bend, Hutchinson, Salina, Junction City, Fort Riley North, and Manhattan...All of these cities are located in Kansas.

Storms will explode throughout the afternoon and evening hours and likely continue on into the night. These storms will contain deadly lightning, damaging hail and winds and even the possible tornado. Please regard all warnings and watches with respect and listen to you NOAA All Hazards Weather Radio. If you do not own one, please check in with your local media. Remember, a tornado can occur at any time during severe weather with little to no warning. If a warning is issued don't wait to see or hear it...take cover immediately.

Severe Weather Expected Thursday

Severe weather is expected on Thursday March 7, 2012. A disturbance moving in from the Rockies will collide with a warmer air mass over parts of East Texas and much of North Louisiana. As a result, widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over the region. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has forecast an area from West Tennessee to Northeast Texas that will see over 2.00" of rainfall from this system. Obviously, flooding will be the largest risk.

HPC forecast outlining areas that will see over 2" of rainfall.

We cannot rule out the possibility of severe thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a SLIGHT RISK in their Day 2 Outlook. This area stretches from Central Texas to Southern Arkansas.

SPC forecasting a slight risk for Thursday.

Stay tuned for any updates as the situation is monitored.

ArkLaTex is Safe

Today the ArkLaTex is safe and free of severe weather. The threat has shifted eastward into Tennessee and Kentucky. There have been no reported deaths overnight but hundreds of injuries from tornadoes in Indiana and Illinois. Two towns took direct hits from large, damaging tornadoes. If you would like up-to-date information on the severe weather today, please follow this link to a friend in the heart of the action today: http://www.monteaglemountainweather.blogspot.com.

Tornado Watch #43 Issued for Parts of the ArkLaTex

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 43
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
          EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
          SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
          EASTERN OKLAHOMA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM
   UNTIL 500 AM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD
   MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF POTEAU OKLAHOMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...
   
   DISCUSSION...BROKEN FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
   SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EWD ACROSS
   OK/KS INTO SW MO/NW AR OVERNIGHT.  SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND A
   CONTINUATION OF VERY STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
   MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE/PERSISTENT
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27050.

East Central Kansas Tornado Warning

237

WFUS53 KTOP 290410

TORTOP

KSC045-290430-

/O.NEW.KTOP.TO.W.0004.120229T0410Z-120229T0430Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS

1010 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 1030 PM CST



* AT 1007 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO.  THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GLOBE...OR 11 MILES

  NORTHWEST OF OTTAWA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 80 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  PLEASANT GROVE...

  BALDWIN CITY...

  VINLAND...



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



FOR YOUR SAFETY...GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR BASEMENT NOW!



STAY TUNED TO WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST

SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.



&&



LAT...LON 3874 9534 3874 9540 3879 9543 3895 9512

      3881 9506

TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 237DEG 70KT 3877 9532

HAIL <.75IN



$$



BLAIR

Tornado Warning in Central Kansas

THIS IS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. THIS TORNADO WOULD BE LOCATED IN THAT LITTLE HOOK..TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY..

469

WFUS53 KICT 290125

TORICT

KSC113-115-290215-

/O.NEW.KICT.TO.W.0003.120229T0125Z-120229T0215Z/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

725 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

  NORTHERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 815 PM CST



* AT 718 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE

  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS

  DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF GOESSEL...OR 14 MILES

  SOUTHEAST OF MCPHERSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.



  THE TORNADIC POTENTIAL OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ONCE AGAIN   


  INCREASING!



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  LEHIGH...HILLSBORO...DURHAM...TAMPA...LINCOLNVILLE...MARION LAKE...

  PILSEN...RAMONA AND LOST SPRINGS.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW!



TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT

AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

IN WICHITA.



&&



LAT...LON 3839 9692 3817 9741 3818 9742 3832 9757

      3861 9717 3861 9694

TIME...MOT...LOC 0123Z 233DEG 54KT 3832 9736

HAIL 1.75IN



$$



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